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HURRICANE LILI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1302
1500Z THU OCT 03 2002
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
 
THE COASTAL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N  92.2W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  60SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 120SE  20SW  80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 240SE 240SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N  92.2W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N  92.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.1N  92.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.0N  90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.0N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N  92.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...ABSORBED

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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