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HURRICANE LILI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1302
2100Z TUE OCT 01 2002
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM SAN LOUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.  A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  85.0W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 65NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT.......135NE 120SE  75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  85.0W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  84.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 24.0N  87.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 65NE  50SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT...135NE 120SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.6N  89.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 65NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.4N  91.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N  85.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 29.5N  93.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 35.5N  91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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