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HURRICANE LILI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1302
0300Z TUE OCT 01 2002
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REST OF CUBA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFEFCT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N  81.5W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 35NE  35SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  50SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE  75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N  81.5W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  81.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.8N  83.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.1N  85.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.5N  88.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N  81.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 25.8N  90.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 29.5N  93.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 100NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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