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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1302
2100Z SUN SEP 22 2002
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS OF THE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM GUADELOUPE SOUTHWARD TO THE GRENADINES INCLUDING BARBADOS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  54.0W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  54.0W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  53.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 12.5N  57.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.5N  60.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.5N  63.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N  54.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 15.5N  66.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 17.0N  69.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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