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HURRICANE ISIDORE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1002
0900Z SAT SEP 21 2002
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESSO ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN
EFFECT FROM TO TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE...INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
COZUMEL.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN CUBA
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR
DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  85.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......125NE 125SE  50SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 275SE  75SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  85.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  85.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.6N  86.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  50SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.3N  88.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.2N  89.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE  75SE  75SW 125NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N  85.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 21.8N  90.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE  75SE  75SW 125NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 21.7N  91.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE  75SE  75SW 125NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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