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HURRICANE ISIDORE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1002
0300Z SAT SEP 21 2002
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL
RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
PROGRESSO TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE ISLAND
OF COZUMEL.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  84.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......125NE 125SE  75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 200SE 125SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  84.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  84.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.9N  85.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N  87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N  88.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N  84.6W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.5N  89.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.5N  90.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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