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HURRICANE ISIDORE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1002
1500Z FRI SEP 20 2002
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL
RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PROGRESSO TO TULUM ON THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  83.9W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  75SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......125NE 125SE  60SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 200SE 125SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  83.9W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  83.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.1N  84.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  75SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.5N  85.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.8N  86.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N  83.9W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N  87.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.0N  88.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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