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HURRICANE ISIDORE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1002
0900Z FRI SEP 20 2002
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL
RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...WEST OF
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
BUT WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  83.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  967 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......125NE 125SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  83.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  83.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.0N  84.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.7N  85.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.0N  86.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N  83.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N  86.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.5N  87.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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