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HURRICANE ISIDORE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1002
0300Z FRI SEP 20 2002
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL
RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS...WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  82.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  25SW   0NW.
34 KT.......125NE 125SE 125SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  82.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N  82.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.7N  83.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.5N  84.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 23.0N  85.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N  82.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 23.5N  86.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.0N  87.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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