HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ISIDORE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1002
2100Z THU SEP 19 2002
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND INCLUDING
THE DRY TORTUGAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS EAST OF MATANZAS.  A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  82.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  82.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N  81.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.3N  83.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.4N  84.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.2N  85.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N  82.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 23.5N  85.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 24.0N  86.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
NNNN