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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1002
1500Z THU SEP 19 2002
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA
FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SANCTI-SPIRITUS AND
CIEGO DE AVILA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY.
  
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  81.2W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  81.2W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  80.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.9N  82.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.0N  83.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.0N  84.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  75NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N  81.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 23.5N  85.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  75SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.5N  86.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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