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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1002
2100Z WED SEP 18 2002
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA AND CIENFUEGOS
WESTWARD...AND INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
CUBA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THIS
EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 78.8W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 78.8W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 78.6W
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.3N 79.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 21.3N 81.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.4N 82.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 78.8W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 23.3N 84.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 24.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN
Webmaster
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