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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1002
0300Z WED SEP 18 2002
 
AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.  TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
 
AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON
WEDNESDAY.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  77.9W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  77.9W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  77.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.5N  78.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.9N  80.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.0N  81.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N  77.9W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 21.5N  82.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 23.0N  84.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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