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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1002
1500Z SUN SEP 15 2002
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  67.2W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  19 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  67.2W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N  66.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.6N  70.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.5N  73.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.2N  76.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  30SW  75NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N  67.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 17.5N  78.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N  80.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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