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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM PST FRI NOV 15 2002
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E REMAINS SHEARED AT THIS TIME DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REMOVED 
FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND THAT CONVECTION 
IS WEAKER AND LESS CONCENTRATED THAN EARLIER.  RECENT QUIKSCAT AND 
SSM/I DATA INDICATE A BAND OF 30 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...SO THAT REMAINS THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 255/6.  THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE A
GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE CYCLONE
SURVIVES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE OF SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUITE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.
 
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE CURRENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL 
WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 72 HR.
THUS...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE BURSTS OF 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION FOR A DAY OR SO...AFTER
WHICH IT SHOULD BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW THAT WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY 72 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 15.8N 113.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.6N 114.5W    25 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 15.5N 115.8W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     16/1800Z 15.5N 117.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     17/0600Z 15.5N 119.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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