ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM PST THU NOV 14 2002
AS ANTICIPATED...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS NOW EXPOSED AND LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN
STRONGER...WEAKENING IS INDICATED.
THE CENTER IS CLEARLY SEEN ON VIS IMAGES SO...THERE IS A BETTER
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 16.4N 112.1W 30 KTS
12HR VT 15/0600Z 16.5N 113.0W 30 KTS
24HR VT 15/1800Z 16.5N 114.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.5N 115.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 16/1800Z 16.5N 116.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
NNNN
Webmaster