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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM PST THU NOV 14 2002
 
AS ANTICIPATED...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME 
ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS NOW EXPOSED AND LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING 
CONVECTION. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN 
STRONGER...WEAKENING IS INDICATED.
 
THE CENTER IS CLEARLY SEEN ON VIS IMAGES SO...THERE IS A BETTER 
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE 
WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS AND A GENERAL WESTWARD 
TRACK...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 
DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 16.4N 112.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 113.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N 114.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N 115.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW

 
 
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