HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM PST THU NOV 14 2002
 
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE
SYSTEM AND ARE DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION WHICH IN 
FACT...IS QUITE STRONG AT THIS TIME.  THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE 
LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN STRONGER 
OVER THE SYSTEM AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM 
QUICKLY.  THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED IN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATION BEGINS. HOWEVER...
ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW 
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME SHEARED 
AND SHALLOW. THEREFORE...A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK...STEERED BY THE 
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 15.5N 111.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N 112.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.0N 114.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     16/0000Z 16.0N 116.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N 117.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     17/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN