HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM PST THU NOV 14 2002
 
TD 16-E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS BASED ON 
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LAST 3 SSMI OVERPASSES 
INDICATE A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED ABOUT 45 NMI 
SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE 
OF T2.0...OR 30 KT...FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/08. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SOUTH 
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THIS POSITION ESTIMATE AND MORE 
WESTWARD MOTION ARE BOTH BASED BASED PRIMARILY ON THE LAST 3 SSMI 
POSITIONS. AS SUCH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED SOUTH 
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION 
IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING OF THE 
CYCLONE BECOMING SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE RESULT 
IS THAT THE DECOUPLED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD 
BY THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. 
THE GFS MODEL INITIALIZED THE DEPRESSION AT LEAST 3 DEGREES TOO FAR 
SOUTH...SO LESS WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THAT SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS 
TAKE THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO AND 
THEN TURN IT MORE WESTWARD AFTER THAT.
 
ALL 3 SATELLITE AGENCIES ALSO REPORTED A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5...OR 
35 KT...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE IS VERY CLOSE TO BECOMING A 
TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONLY ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF 
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR BEFORE 50 KT UPPER-LEVEL 
WINDS DECAPITATE THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL 
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE 
SYSTEM UP TO 34 KT IN 12 HOURS AND 36 KT IN 24 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL 
WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER THAT AND DISSIPATION IN 60 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 15.4N 111.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.9N 113.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.3N 115.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.4N 117.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N 119.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     17/0600Z 16.5N 124.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN