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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PST WED NOV 13 2002
 
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE REALLY HAS NOT IMPROVED ANY OVER 
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SSMI MICROWAVE AND RECENT NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY 
INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO 
FINALLY HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER.  AS A RESULT...THE 
SYSTEM IS NOW A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED.

THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS DRY AIR IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST 
OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENCOUNTER VERY STRONG 
WESTERLY SHEAR WITHIN A DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF 
OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING AS THE DEPRESSION SWINGS 
AROUND AN UPPER LOW TO ITS SOUTH. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/14...BUT SINCE THERE HAS 
NOT BEEN A TRACKABLE CENTER UNTIL NOW THIS ESTIMATE IS HIGHLY 
UNCERTAIN.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW BAM 
GUIDANCE...ON THE PRESUMPTION THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS WEAK AND 
SHEARED. 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0400Z 15.5N 110.9W    25 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 16.2N 112.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 16.9N 114.8W    25 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 117.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N 119.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N 123.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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