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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2002
 
JUST WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE LOWELL HAD DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN 
WAVE...THE CIRRUS CLEARED ENOUGH TO LOCATE A CIRCULATION CENTER.  A 
QUIKSCAT PASS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE WINDS REMAIN 
ABOUT 30 KT.  THE SYSTEM LOOKS VERY RAGGED...WITH ONLY A SMALL 
CLOSED CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOME LIMITED CONVECTION.  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF LOWELL...SO 
ITS PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT DO NOT LOOK THAT GOOD.  FOR SOME 
REASON THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT SEE THE SHEAR THAT I AM SEEING...AND 
BRINGS LOWELL UP TO 54 KT IN 72 HOURS.  I THINK IT IS JUST AS LIKELY 
THAT LOWELL WILL DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE THEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10.  LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE 
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST UNDERNEATH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGHOUT 
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SINCE LOWELL IS CROSSING 140W...THE NEXT DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED 
BY CPHC UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA45 PHFO AND AWIPS HEADER TCDCP5.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 12.6N 140.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 12.7N 141.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 13.0N 143.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 13.5N 145.3W    30 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 14.0N 147.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 15.5N 150.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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