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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2002
 
THE CENTER REMAINS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE...ALTHOUGH A
MICROWAVE PASS AT 06Z SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS PROBABLY ON
TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 270/10.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KT...AND SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 30 KT.  LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH...ALTHOUGH THE 
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE 
BRINGS LOWELL BACK UP TO 50 KT.  FOR NOW...I AM NOT GOING TO CHANGE 
THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY TELLS US WHAT 
KIND OF CIRCULATION WE HAVE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 12.6N 139.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 12.8N 140.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 13.2N 142.3W    30 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 13.7N 144.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 14.5N 146.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 15.5N 150.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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