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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2002
 
IT IS MOST DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER ON INFRARED IMAGERY AND 
RECENT SSMI AND TRMM PASSES DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION AND THERE IS NO RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS TO HELP.  THE 
INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON USING A MOTION OF 275/10.  
LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK 
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES 
WITH THIS.

THERE HAS BEEN A FLARE-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL 
HOURS...NOT ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEED SINCE I DO NOT KNOW 
WHERE THE CENTER IS...BUT ENOUGH TO BACK OFF FROM THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY WHICH BEGAN THE DISSIPATION PROCESS IN 12 HOURS.  THIS 
ADVISORY WILL KEEP A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS 
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH SHOWS VERTICAL SHEAR LESS THAN 20 
KNOTS FROM 12 THROUGH 48 HOURS AND SHIPS ACTUALLY BRINGS THE WIND 
SPEED TO 40 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.  ALL OF THIS IS PREDICATED ON THE 
EXISTENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 12.6N 138.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 12.8N 139.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 13.3N 141.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 13.9N 143.3W    30 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 14.4N 145.1W    30 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 15.3N 148.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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