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TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2002
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB...35 KT FROM TAFB 
WITH BOTH AGENCIES INDICATING DIFFICULTY DETERMINING DVORAK FINAL T 
NUMBERS DUE TO THE ABSENSE OF CONVECTION WITH LOWELL. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF LOWELL IS 
SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  AN EARLIER 0300 UTC 
QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED A CENTER LOCATION SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS 
SATELLITE FIXES.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10 BASED ON A 
12 TO 18 HOUR AVERAGE.  LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL 
WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE 
PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS CONSENSUS 
TRACK AND THE BAM SHALLOW TRACK SPEED.
 
LOWELL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE ABSENSE OF DEEP CONVECTION 
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CALLING FOR A REMNANT LOW CENTER IN 24 
HOURS.  SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR WILL REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT 
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ALTHOUGH A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO 
PERSIST FOR 72 HOURS...THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE THEN.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/HOLWEG
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 12.3N 135.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 12.4N 136.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     25/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     26/0000Z 13.2N 140.1W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     26/1200Z 13.8N 141.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     27/1200Z 14.0N 145.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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