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TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2002
 
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF 
LOWELL...BASED ON THE LARGE SCATTER IN THE SATELLITE FIX POSITONS 
FORM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES. HOWEVER...MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE 
PARTIALLY TO MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE FAR WEST SIDE 
OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM 
SAB...35 KT FROM...TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE 
GENEROUS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/8.  LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND BE STEERED TOWARD THE 
WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS 
TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA ENSEMBLE MODEL TRACK.
 
LOWELL IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ANY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST 
PERIOD AND MAY EVEN WEAKEN MORE AND SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL 
INTENSITY FORECAST IS INDICATING...EVEN THOUGH THE SHIPS AND GFS/AVN 
MODELS INDICATE THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE THE 
CURRENT 20 KT THAT IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 12.7N 133.6W    40 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 12.8N 134.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 13.0N 135.8W    40 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 13.3N 137.3W    40 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 13.6N 138.9W    35 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 14.3N 142.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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