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TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2002

VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW EXPOSED TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATING THAT LOWELL IS
BEING AFFECTED BY INCREASED SHEAR.  THE CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE
MAY BE GENEROUS.  IF THE SHEARING CONTINUES...THEN LOWELL WILL VERY
LIKELY WEAKEN.  HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
OVER LOWELL COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT...PARTICULARLY IF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE REMAINS AT A LOW LATITUDE.  THEREFORE THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION IS TO PREDICT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

THERE IS NOT MUCH MOTION AND THE CURRENT ESTIMATE IS A RATHER 
UNCERTAIN 260/4.  THE MORE SOUTHWESTWARD POSITIONING OF THE CENTER 
HAS REQUIRED A SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  THE 
PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO STEERING SHOULD BE THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC 
FLOW...AND IF LOWELL WEAKENS MORE THAN SHOWN HERE IT WILL BE CARRIED 
FASTER TOWARD THE WEST THAN INDICATED IN THIS FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 12.2N 131.7W    40 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 12.8N 132.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 13.0N 133.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 13.2N 134.2W    40 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 13.4N 135.2W    40 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 14.0N 137.5W    35 KTS
 
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