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TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2002
 
LOWELL IS GIVING CONFLICTING SIGNALS THIS MORNING.  ON IR IMAGERY 
THE BANDING STRUCTURE IS MUCH IMPROVED...BUT THE NIGHT-VISIBLE 
IMAGERY STILL SUGGESTS A LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED WEST OF THE 
IMPRESSIVE IR CENTER.  OVERALL...THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE 
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH 
A DEEPER SYSTEM RESPONDING TO AN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS 
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY.  I AM COMPROMISING A BIT ON THE INITIAL 
POSITION UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY IN A FEW HOURS HOPEFULLY CLARIFIES 
THINGS.  WITH THE IMPROVED BANDING STRUCTURE ON IR IMAGERY...THE 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM 
SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/5.  THERE IS A DISTINCT SPLIT IN 
THE GUIDANCE...WITH NEARLY ALL OF IT TAKING LOWELL WESTWARD WITH A 
SHALLOW LAYER FLOW.  THE LBAR IS ALONE WITH A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST 
TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.  IF LOWELL CONSOLIDATES WITH THE DEEP 
CONVECTION...THEN THIS MIGHT BE A REASONABLE TRACK IN THE SHORT 
TERM...AND I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO THE RIGHT OF THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION WILL 
TAKE LOWELL TOWARD STRONGER SHEAR AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WATER...SO A 
WEST TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS LIKELY.  THE 
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING...WITH MODEST 
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND DECAY THEREAFTER.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 12.9N 131.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 13.5N 131.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 14.1N 132.2W    50 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 14.5N 133.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 134.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N 137.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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