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TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2002
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB 
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E HAS STRENGTHENED INTO 
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY 
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITON BASED ON A 23/0338Z 
AMSU OVERPASS AND A CONCURRENT PARTIAL QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/05...EVEN THOUGH THE MOTION OVER 
THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN ROUGHLY 360/04. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON LOWELL TURNING MORE TOWARD THE 
NORTH LATER TODAY AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY 24 HOURS AS THE 
CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OR 
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET...GFDL...AND GFDN 
CONSENSUS. NOGAPS WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT THE ADVISORY TIME.
 
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND A 23/0338Z AMSU 
OVERPASS INDICATED THAT A PARTIAL EYEWALL MAY HAVE BEEN FORMING AT 
THAT TIME. SHIPS INDICATES THE SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE ABOVE 
THE CURRENT 15 KT...BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE 
AT THIS TIME. AS SUCH...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY 
FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST 
THROUGH 24 HOURS BUT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SHIPS AFTER THAT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 12.0N 130.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 12.7N 131.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 13.5N 133.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 13.9N 134.7W    45 KTS
48HR VT     25/0600Z 14.2N 136.2W    45 KTS
72HR VT     26/0600Z 14.5N 138.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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