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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2002

LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-E HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH SOME EVIDENCE
OF CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...30 KT...AND 25 KT FROM SAB...TAFB...
AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER IS VERY HARD TO FIND.  THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...AND JUST TO COMPLICATE
MATTERS FURTHER THERE ARE HINTS OF A SWIRL WEST OF THE ELONGATION
NEAR 11.1N 131.3W.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION BASED ON THE SAB AND AFWA FIXES AND THE
CONVECTIVE CURVATURE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN AGAIN VERY UNCERTAIN 315/5.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NORTH
OF 19N EAST OF 130W...BUT ALSO SUGGESTS THERE IS A NARROW RIDGE
SEPARATING THE CYCLONE FROM THE TROUGH.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE SAVE
LBAR RESPONDS TO THIS BY TURNING THE DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO...
SIMILAR TO BUT SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION AND APPARENT MOTION.  SHOULD THE CENTER RE-FORM OR
BE RE-LOCATED TO THE SOUTH ON A LATER PACKAGE...THE FORECAST TRACK
COULD SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
IS CENTER OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH IS 
HELPING TO SHUNT THE WESTERLIES AND STRONG SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE 
SYSTEM.  THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. 
THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AFTER 36-48 HR.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE COOLER
WATER AFTER 48 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 11.9N 130.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 12.6N 131.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 13.5N 132.9W    35 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 14.0N 134.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 14.5N 136.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 15.0N 138.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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