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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2002
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE AREA 
OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR 130W HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH 
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  DVORAK 
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.0...CORRESPONDING TO 30 KT. 
I COULD NOT EXTRACT AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM THE QUIKSCAT 
RAIN-FLAGGED VECTORS SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF HISTORY ON 
THE SYSTEM...BUT A HOPEFULLY REASONABLE GUESS IS 285/5.  THERE IS A 
WEAK RIDGE SEPARATING THE DEPRESSION FROM THE WESTERLIES...AND MOST 
OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST- 
NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM AND 
SHALLOW BAM AND THE GFS.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS 
DO NOT INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP MUCH.  THE SHIPS 
GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS NOT HELPFUL...AS IT WAS RUN OFF THE LBAR 
TRACK WHICH RECURVED THE DEPRESSION TO THE NORTHEAST INTO COOLER 
WATERS AND HIGH SHEAR.  THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT 
FAVORABLE...WITH DECENT SSTS...LOW SHEAR...AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
ALOFT.  I AM NOT CERTAIN WHY THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SO DOWN ON THIS 
SYSTEM...BUT THEY ARE THE ONLY GUIDANCE I HAVE RIGHT NOW.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
STORM BECAUSE OF THE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE FACTORS AS NOTED ABOVE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 11.1N 130.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 11.4N 132.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 11.8N 133.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 12.3N 135.3W    35 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 12.7N 136.8W    35 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 13.5N 140.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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