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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2002

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN EITHER THE LOCATION OR INTENSITY
OF KENNA OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.  OBSERVATIONS FROM SOMBRERETE...
ALONG WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SATELLITE CLOUD PATTERN...SUGGEST THE 
CENTER IS MOVING 045/23...JUST A TOUCH TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS 
TRACK.  ZACATECAS REPORTED 30 KT SUSTAINED WINDS ABOUT 50-60 N MI 
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 01Z...SUGGESTING THAT AT THAT TIME 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 35 KT.  KENNA IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE 
WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION SINCE THAT TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONGER 
WINDS MAY STILL BE OCCURRING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
 
THERE ARE TWO SCENARIOS FOR THE FATE OF KENNA.  THE FIRST HAS THE 
SURFACE CENTER DISSIPATING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE FIRST
12 HR...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CENTER TRIGGERING A LOW IN A FRONTAL 
ZONE NEAR THE TEXAS COAST.  THE SECOND IS FOR A MUCH WEAKENED 
SURFACE CENTER TO SURVIVE AND MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE FIRST SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...WHICH 
EVER SCENARIO VERIFIES WILL NOT MAKE A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE 
WEATHER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF STATES...AS A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE 
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT 
RAINS.  PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL 
PREDICTION CENTER AND LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICES FOR INFORMATION ON 
THE RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON KENNA BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 24.5N 102.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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