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HURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2002
 
KENNA CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A SMALL WELL DEFINED EYE.  THERE IS A
SUGGESTION OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED 
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.  BASED ON DVORAK 
CLASSIFICATIONS OF 7.0/7.5 FROM TAFB/SAB...THE WIND SPEED IS 
INCREASED 5 KNOTS TO 145 KNOTS.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE 
HURRICANE AT 12Z.  THERE IS ALREADY ABOUT 25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR 
NEAR THE HURRICANE AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...THE CIMSS CLOUD 
MOTION VECTOR WIND SHEAR IS LESS.  SO FAR THE WIND SHEAR DOES NOT 
APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING KENNA.  THEREFORE IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE WIND 
SPEED WILL CHANGE LITTLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
KENNA REMAINS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
OF 035/13.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND KENNA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND IN 12 HOURS OR SO.
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE KENNA.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 19.8N 107.0W   145 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 21.5N 105.5W   135 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 25.2N 101.0W    40 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     26/1800Z 29.5N  94.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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