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HURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2002
 
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T6.5...AND 
THE 3 HOUR OBJECTIVE DVORAK WAS NEAR T7.0.  IN THE LAST COUPLE OF 
IMAGES THE EYE APPEARS TO BE BECOMING MORE SHARPLY DEFINED.  THE 
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 120 KT AND MAY STILL BE A LITTLE 
LOW.  A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CENTER AROUND 18Z TO 
GIVE US A BETTER HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY.
 
KENNA IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD...360/8...AND IS BASICALLY ON TRACK.  
KENNA IS APPROACHING A MAJOR TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES THAT WILL TURN 
THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE MODEL 
GUIDANCE REMAINS REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND THERE 
HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  AS 
NOTED PREVIOUSLY...THE GFS...WITH A VERY WEAKLY INITITED VORTEX...IS 
THE OUTLIER TO THE NORTH...BRINGING KENNA TO NEAR MAZATLAN.  THE 
REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LANDFALL NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF 
CABO CORRIENTES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND OF THE UKMET 
AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.
 
AS KENNA ROUNDS THE RIDGE...THE SHEAR FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE 
INCREASING...SO KENNA HAS PERHAPS NOT MORE THAN 6-12 HOURS OF 
STRENGTHENING.  SSTS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM UNDER THE 
CYCLONE...HOWEVER...AND KENNA WILL PROBABLY STILL BE A MAJOR 
HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 16.9N 108.7W   120 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 18.2N 108.5W   125 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 20.0N 107.2W   115 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 22.0N 105.0W   100 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     26/1200Z 24.5N 102.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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