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HURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2002
 
KENNA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING.  THE HURRICANE
HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CONVECTIVE TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C...AND OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES OF AN EYE IN THE 
OVERCAST.  AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS SHOWED A ROUGHLY 15 N MI WIDE
EYE UNDER THE CIRRUS CANOPY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THIS...
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE RAISED TO 85 KT.

THE 12 HR MOTION IS 300/13.  HOWEVER...A 5 HR MOTION IS A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT AND SLOWER...310/10.  THE INITIAL MOTION WILL BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO VECTORS...305/12.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT KENNA IS STEADILY APPROACHING THE WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE
PACIFIC NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 130W.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE KENNA TO SOON
RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH ALL NHC TRACK GUIDANCE SAVE CLIPER
INDICATING RECURVATURE IN 12-24 HR.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW
FAST WILL KENNA MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGREES
BEST WITH THE SPEED OF THE GFS/AVN AND THE NOGAPS...BRINGING KENNA
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO BETWEEN MAZATLAN AND PUERTO
VALLARTA IN 48 HR.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF KENNA TURNS MORE
SHARPLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT COULD STRIKE THE COAST FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND EARLIER.

ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.
WHILE 105 KT IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE GFDL STRENGTHENS KENNA
TO 120 KT...WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS.
AFTER 24 HR...THE HURRICANE SHOULD MAKE CONTACT WITH STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR TO THE POINT
OF AT LEAST STOPPING INTENSIFICATION IF NOT CAUSING WEAKENING.  THE
FORECAST WILL THUS CALL FOR SLOW WEAKENING FROM THE 24 HR POINT
TO LANDFALL IN AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.  KENNA 
SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AFTER LANDFALL.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KENNA.  HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKE BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MEXICAN COAST THURSDAY MORNING.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 15.3N 108.3W    85 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 109.2W    95 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 18.3N 108.9W   105 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 20.0N 107.8W   100 KTS
48HR VT     26/0000Z 22.0N 106.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     27/0000Z 26.5N 101.0W    20 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING
 
 
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