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HURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2002

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES NOW SHOW AN EYE.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY 
IS SET TO 75 KT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM 
TAFB.  KENNA HAS A NICE SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN AND IT IS OVER 
VERY WARM WATER. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...VERTICAL SHEAR IS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND THIS SHOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON THE 
STRENGTHENING PROCESS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT 
WEAKENING PRIOR TO THE ANTICIPATED LANDFALL...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF 
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW STRONG KENNA MIGHT BE WHEN IT REACHES THE 
COAST.

THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
OTHERWISE THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  KENNA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A 500 MB ANTICYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AFTERWARDS...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH TO
NORTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK IS
IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KENNA.  IF 
KENNA CONTINUES ON THE PROJECTED TRACK...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL 
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST TOMORROW.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 14.5N 107.5W    75 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.6N 108.4W    85 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 17.2N 109.0W    95 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 18.8N 108.2W    90 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 20.5N 107.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 24.5N 103.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
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