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HURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2002
 
RECENT IR IMAGES ARE SHOWING A WARM SPOT THAT IS PROBABLY THE
BEGINNING OF AN EYE.  KENNA IS CONSOLIDATING...WITH THE INNER CORE
CONVECTION MUCH STRONGER...AND THE OUTER BANDS SOMEWHAT LESS
PRONOUNCED THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS
EXCELLENT TO THE WEST AND IMPROVING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
CYCLONE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.0...65
KT...AND SO KENNA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THIS BASIS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11.  THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ARE ESSENTIALLLY UNCHANGED.
KENNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...AND MEET UP WITH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE BEEN
QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE APPROACHES TO THE TRACK OF
KENNA.  THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TAKING KENNA TO THE VICINITY OF MAZATLAN...WHILE
THE GFDL AND UKMET HAVE BEEN NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE...CLOSER TO CABO
CORRIENTES.  THE FIRST FEW GFS FORECASTS ARE ALREADY SHOWING A
WESTWARD BIAS...WHICH SUPPORTS A COMPROMISE OFFICIAL FORECAST THAT
LEANS TOWARD THE UKMET.  INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CONTROL RUN...AND NOT FAR FROM THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
HAVING DEVELOPED A GOOD INNER CORE...THERE IS NO GOOD REASON FOR
KENNA TO STOP STRENGTHENING JUST YET.  THE WATER IS VERY WARM AND
THE SHEAR WILL BE LOW FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS AS KENNA ROUNDS THE
RIDGE AXIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR KENNA TO STRENGTHEN MORE
THAN SHOWN BELOW.  AFTER KENNA TURNS NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AN INCREASE IN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG KENNA MIGHT BE AT THE
TIME OF LANDFALL...WHICH IS STILL TWO TO THREE DAYS OUT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KENNA.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 14.0N 106.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 14.8N 107.3W    75 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.1N 108.4W    85 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N 108.5W    95 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 19.0N 107.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 23.0N 104.5W    40 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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