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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 26 2002
 
JULIO HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS WEAKENING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB WERE 45 KT AT 0600 UTC. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0123 UTC
INDICATED A FEW 35 KT RAIN CONTAMINATED WINDS. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...THE SYNOPTIC INTENSITY WAS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER
SINCE THAT TIME THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED
WITH ONLY A HINT OF A BAND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY AS WELL THUS THE INTENSITY FOR
ADVISORY TIME IS LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS. IN ADDITION SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM MANZANILLO INDICATE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.
ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AT THIS TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION OF JULIO IS 315/10. THE MOTION AT SYNOPTIC
TIME WAS 315/12 BASED ON FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB. NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
MOTION WITH A DECREASE ON FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DRIFTS SOUTHWEST AND
A RIDGE SLOWLY RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THE FORECAST
TRACK BRINGS THE CYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
72 HOURS.
 
EVEN THOUGH RECENT FIXES ARE NEAR THE COAST AND THE FORECAST TRACK
IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BRINGING THE CYCLONE BACK
OVER WATER IN 24 HOURS...THERE IS A CHANCE JULIO MAY NOT SURVIVE THE
RUGGED TERRAIN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES JULIO WILL SURVIVE
THE ENCOUNTER WITH LAND AND CALLS FOR REINTENSIFICATION TO A 35 KT
TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS...AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BACK OVER
WATER. BY THAT TIME THE FORECAST TROPICAL STORM WIND RADII ARE OVER
OPEN WATER.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/COBB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 19.0N 103.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 19.8N 105.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     27/0600Z 20.7N 106.1W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     27/1800Z 21.6N 107.3W    40 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     28/0600Z 22.5N 108.5W    50 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     29/0600Z 23.0N 110.5W    45 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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