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TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 25 2002
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND ARE NOW 45 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM KGWC.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM
THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT THE WINDS AT THAT TIME WERE LAGGING THE
CONCURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES...AND I WILL ASSUME THAT THE
CLASSIFICATIONS STILL HAVE SOME HIGH BIAS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE INCREASED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH THE INITIAL MOTION...NOW
ESTIMATED AT 355/8.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS
BEFORE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND WIND VECTORS FROM THE CIMSS WEB
PAGE SHOW A SMALL MID-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THIS...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF THE CLIMOTOLOGICAL MEXICAN HIGH...IS
ALLOWING JULIO TO MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE COAST.  GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN
THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND BUILD THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND THIS PATTERN
WOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE OVERALL STEERING AND TURN JULIO TO THE
NORTHWEST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE UKMET SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A MOTION
THAT COULD PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY AND HAZARDOUS RAINS.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN SOME EASTERLY SHEAR THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.  HOWEVER...WITH THE CENTER EXPECTED TO BE OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO LAND...NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 17.6N 102.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 18.1N 102.4W    35 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.6N 103.3W    35 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     27/0600Z 19.0N 104.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     27/1800Z 19.5N 105.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     28/1800Z 21.0N 108.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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