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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2002

ISELLE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM SAB/AFWA AND 25 KT FROM TAFB.  THE CYCLONE 
IS LOOKING VERY RAGGED ON SATELLITE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL 
BE DECREASED TO 25 KT.  NOTE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS 
BASED ON A RELIABLE 1004 MB SHIP REPORT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS MADE ITS EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN AND THE INITIAL 
MOTION IS 345/4.  STEERING WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW 
DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS 
SYSTEM...GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A TURN 
TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12 HR.
 
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR ISELLE AND IS CONFINED TO A 
SMALL AREA SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. WHILE A FEW MORE BURSTS OF 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LIKELY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
SLOWLY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION AFTER 36 HR.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/BURR/BLAKE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 24.3N 112.7W    25 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 24.8N 112.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     21/0000Z 25.3N 113.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     21/1200Z 25.7N 114.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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