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TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2002
 
ISELLE IS CLINGING TO LIFE.  LATEST IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION STILL REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 30 KT FROM TAFB. SINCE
THE CONVECTION HAS NOT DISSIPATED YET...ISELLE WILL REMAIN A
TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
 
THE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT.  THE WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
ALLOW THE STORM TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH AN
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF ISELLE.  IF
THIS LOW DOES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...IT SHOULD ALLOW ISELLE TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN ITS DISSIPATING STAGE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/1500Z 23.7N 112.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     20/0000Z 24.3N 112.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     20/1200Z 24.8N 113.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     21/0000Z 25.1N 114.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     21/1200Z 25.5N 115.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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