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TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2002

AS PREVIOUSLY SUSPECTED...VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.  ISELLE HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
025/04...AND STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OVER THE
AREA.  NONETHELESS ISELLE...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE
SHALLOW-LAYER STEERING.

THERE ARE JUST A FEW ISOLATED PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEMS CIRCULATION...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO 
ASSIGN A DATA T-NUMBER FOR INTENSITY ESTIMATION VIA THE DVORAK 
TECHNIQUE.  ASSUMING A NORMAL RATE OF SPINDOWN...THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR ANOTHER 12 H...IN CASE A BURST OF DEEP 
CONVECTION OCCURS TONIGHT.  HOWEVER WE EXPECT ISELLE TO BE 
DISSIPATING IN 36 H AND TO BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE 
OF DAYS...OR SOONER. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 22.7N 113.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 23.3N 113.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 24.0N 114.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     20/0600Z 24.5N 114.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     20/1800Z 25.0N 114.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     21/1800Z 26.0N 115.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
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