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TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2002
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES THAT ISELLE IS VOID OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION.  ALL DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE BASED ON THE MODEL
EXPECTED TREND (MET) SINCE DATA T-NUMBERS COULD NOT BE ESTIMATED.
CONSEQUENTLY INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SINCE OCCASIONAL FLARE-UPS OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER.
HOWEVER ISELLE IS LIKELY TO BE IN A DISSIPATING STATE IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS ARE OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR THE CENTER MAY BE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS POSITION.  STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK.  ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IT IS ESTIMATED THAT ISELLE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  THE WEAK STEERING REGIME
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVES EASTWARD.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ISELLE...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE ONLY 
ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO THE INITIAL WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII BASED ON 
NEARBY 12Z SHIP REPORTS.

FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/1500Z 22.5N 114.7W    40 KTS
12HR VT     19/0000Z 23.0N 114.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 23.7N 114.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     20/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     20/1200Z 25.0N 115.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     21/1200Z 26.0N 116.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW


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