HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2002
 
ISELLE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDS FORMING AROUND 
THE CENTER WITH PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION.  SHIP D5BC RECENTLY 
PASSED THROUGH A STRONG BAND AND REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 36 
KNOTS AND 1003.5 MB NEAR THE MEXICAN COASTLINE.  BASED ON THIS 
OBSERVATION TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE 
STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.  

THE SURFACE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A BIT FARTHER TO THE 
NORTH AND IS CONFIRMED BY A 2344Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS. THE BEST 
ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS 
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE A WEAK MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE 
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR 
BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME AS THE CURRENT FORECAST 
TRACK KEEPS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE. 
 
THE STORM IS CURRENTLY BEING MODERATELY SHEARED FROM THE EAST BUT 
UPPER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT.  THESE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE IN THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS THOUGH INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE HALTED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS 
WHEN THE CYCLONE TRAVELS OVER COOLER SSTS.  
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 17.2N 107.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 17.9N 109.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 18.9N 111.4W    60 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 19.7N 113.8W    65 KTS
48HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     19/0000Z 22.0N 119.0W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN