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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2002
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS TO PARTIALLY REVEAL A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/12.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO A BIT FASTER BUT IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK...I.E. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN
AT 25 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 30 KNOTS FROM SAB.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION... 
AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST IS NEAR 50 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN SHIPS BUT 
PEAKS AT A LOWER INTENSITY AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... 
SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK NOW BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER COLDER WATERS A 
BIT SOONER.

FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 15.8N 106.4W    25 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.3N 108.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 17.2N 110.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 18.0N 112.9W    55 KTS
48HR VT     17/1800Z 19.0N 115.1W    60 KTS
72HR VT     18/1800Z 20.5N 118.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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