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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS APPROXIMATELY 285/09...ALTHOUGH THE
POSITION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.  A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
IS A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH IS ON THE LEFT EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS ATTEMPTING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONVECTION
IS SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM TAFB
AND AFWA...AND 30 KNOTS FROM SAB.  THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION...WITH A PEAK OF ONLY 50 KNOTS AT 72 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHIPS IS UNDERESTIMATING THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE...WHICH HAS OCCURRED WITH OTHER EASTERN PACIFIC
SYSTEMS THIS YEAR.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE
SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 15.4N 104.9W    25 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 15.8N 106.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 16.5N 108.8W    40 KTS
36HR VT     17/0000Z 17.3N 111.1W    55 KTS
48HR VT     17/1200Z 18.2N 113.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     18/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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