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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2002
 
THE STRONG TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTH OF 
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5...OR 25 KT...FROM TAFB...AND A PRESSURE 
OF 1008 MB FROM SHIP WTEE AT 15/0100Z WHEN IT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 180 
NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. ALSO...A 15/0110Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS  
INDICATED SEVERAL NON-RAIN CONTAMINATED 25 KT WIND VALUES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO 
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE 
TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED 3 BAM MDOELS AND THE 00Z 
AVN FORECAST TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER 
36 HOURS. SHIPS ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 56 KT IN 60 HOURS AND 
THEN QUICKLY WEAKENS IT AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS INTENSITY 
OUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE LBAR MODEL WHICH QUICKLY RECURVES THE 
DEPRESSION NORTHWARD OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND UNDER INCREASING 
SHEAR AFTER 36 HOURS. BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE 
WESTWARD AND REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER AND UNDER UPPRR-LEVEL RIDGING 
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...A HIGHER INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN 
ORDER AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 15.4N 104.5W    25 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.6N 106.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.1N 108.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 16.8N 110.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     18/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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