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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2002
THE STRONG TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5...OR 25 KT...FROM TAFB...AND A PRESSURE
OF 1008 MB FROM SHIP WTEE AT 15/0100Z WHEN IT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 180
NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. ALSO...A 15/0110Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
INDICATED SEVERAL NON-RAIN CONTAMINATED 25 KT WIND VALUES.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE
TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED 3 BAM MDOELS AND THE 00Z
AVN FORECAST TRACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER
36 HOURS. SHIPS ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 56 KT IN 60 HOURS AND
THEN QUICKLY WEAKENS IT AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS INTENSITY
OUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE LBAR MODEL WHICH QUICKLY RECURVES THE
DEPRESSION NORTHWARD OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND UNDER INCREASING
SHEAR AFTER 36 HOURS. BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
WESTWARD AND REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER AND UNDER UPPRR-LEVEL RIDGING
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...A HIGHER INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN
ORDER AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0900Z 15.4N 104.5W 25 KTS
12HR VT 15/1800Z 15.6N 106.0W 30 KTS
24HR VT 16/0600Z 16.1N 108.0W 40 KTS
36HR VT 16/1800Z 16.8N 110.0W 50 KTS
48HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W 65 KTS
72HR VT 18/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W 70 KTS
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