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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 08 2002
THERE HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...PRIMARILY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT THE OVERALL AREA OF THIS
CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER SMALL. CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 25
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER A
SIGNIFICANT SST GRADIENT...TOWARD COOLER WATERS...DISSIPATION IS
LIKELY IN A DAY OR SO.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXISTS TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...IN THE VICINITY OF
120W...THIS WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE RATHER WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEPRESSION...SO A RATHER
SLOW MOTION IS FORECAST ALONG A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD
HEADING. THIS IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE...BUT SLOWER THAN MOST...OF
THE TRACK MODELS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0900Z 21.8N 113.7W 25 KTS
12HR VT 08/1800Z 22.6N 114.0W 20 KTS
24HR VT 09/0600Z 23.3N 114.1W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 09/1800Z 23.7N 114.1W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 10/0600Z 24.2N 114.1W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 114.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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