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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 07 2002

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEGUN MOVING AGAIN...NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 340/7
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONTINUED
GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE SPEED.  OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH
SHOWS A FASTER MOTION THAN NOGAPS AND UKMET....AND GIVEN THE CURRENT
FORWARD SPEED...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALONG BUT FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION THAN BEGAN NEAR 20 UTC IS NOW
DISSIPATING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KNOTS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SST 
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/KNABB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 21.4N 113.5W    25 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 22.1N 113.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.6N 113.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N 113.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     10/0000Z 23.3N 113.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     11/0000Z 23.8N 113.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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