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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 07 2002
 
NOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED AND EASY TO LOCATE...IT
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS UNDER LOW-LEVEL STEERING.  THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE
MODELS...AVN...GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...INDICATE A SLOW MOSTLY
NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS FOR SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION BECOMING STATIONARY
AFTER 36 HOURS.  A TRACK FORECAST OF STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 72 
HOURS WOULD PROBABLY BE JUST AS GOOD.
 
THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF REINTENSIFICATION.  THE DEPRESSION IS
DISSIPATING AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 20.7N 113.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
12HR VT     08/0600Z 21.3N 113.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     08/1800Z 22.0N 113.6W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     09/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     09/1800Z 22.5N 113.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     10/1800Z 22.5N 113.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
  
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