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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 07 2002
 
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE WEAKER THAT YESTERDAY AS INDICATED BY 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL 
WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND MOST OF THE 
MODELS WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST.

THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES BUT BEST 
ESTIMATES ARE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW TRACK 
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARD COOLER WATER IS FORECAST FOR THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.

BECAUSE STRENGHTENING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED...THE TROPICAL STORM 
WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
  
FORECASTER AVILA/NELSON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 21.5N 112.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 22.2N 112.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 23.0N 113.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N 113.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 24.5N 114.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     10/1200Z 26.5N 114.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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