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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2002
 
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA HAS BECOME BETTER 
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF INTENSITY ARE 25 
AND 30 KTS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THE SYSTEM HAS DEEP 
CONVECTION WITH OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS AND A SMALL BUT WELL 
DEFINED CIRCULATION.  BASED UPON THIS THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/12.  THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
AVAILABLE CONTINUES TO MOVE THE SYSTEM IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE LATER FORECAST
PERIODS.  IF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PREVAILS WATCHES AND WARNING
MAY NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST LARGELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE SYSTEM 
INCREASES TO A 50 KT TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES OVER 
COLDER SSTS.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 19.2N 107.9W    25 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 20.2N 109.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 21.2N 111.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 22.3N 112.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 23.5N 113.9W    40 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 26.0N 116.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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